关键词: 集合扩散模拟, 中小尺度, 示踪实验, 集合分析

Abstract: The paper presents a mesoscale and microscale ensemble dispersion simulation based on a field tracer experiment which applied the concept of ensemble dispersion modeling and combined with different meteorological flows and atmospheric dispersion models. Ensemble analysis is carried out between simulation results of multi-model and the field experimental results. The ensemble analysis indicators are studied from three aspects, including spatial analysis, time analysis and discrete test. The results show that: the ensemble dispersion simulation and analysis considers the calculation results of different modes, and gives the potential coverage area range and probability of contaminant, the contaminant concentration distribution with different confidence levels, contaminant concentration change at interest points (regional), the probability of plume arrival and departure time etc. Meanwhile, through further determine and revise combining with the monitoring results, simulation results can get close to the real value. Thus, the application of ensemble dispersion modeling technology to emergency decision-making field is of great practical guidance.

Key words: ensemble dispersion modeling, mesoscale and microscale, tracer experiment, ensemble analysis