不确定性分析技术在某环保配套工程安全评价中的应用研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决放射性废物处置安全评价结果受认知水平和长时间尺度等因素引起的不确定性问题,基于某环保配套工程项目开展确定性模型安全评价,然后基于概率论方法、拉丁超立方抽样技术生成1 000个样本,开展不确定性分析和灵敏度分析工作。结果表明确定性模型相对于不确定性模型,对近场释放率计算结果偏高,对地质圈释放率计算结果良好,对Mo-93、Ni-59产生的照射剂量估算较好,对I-129产生的照射剂量代表性中等偏下。灵敏度分析结果表明工程屏障中混凝土相关参数(如:混凝土有效扩散系数、混凝土中核素分配系数、混凝土屏障厚度)、废物浸出率、初始活度和核素在地质圈的分配系数为模型释放率峰值主要影响参数,可为后续工程设计与野外调查遴选出重点参数。

关键词: 放射性废物处置, 不确定性分析, 灵敏度分析, 岩洞型处置, 库室模型

Abstract: In order to solve the uncertainty problem (caused by cognitive level and long time scale) of safety assessment results for radioactive waste disposal, this study, based on an environmental protection supporting project, first carried out deterministic model safety assessment, and then generated 1 000 samples based on probability theory method and Latin hypercube sampling technology to carry out uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the calculation results of near-field release rate of deterministic model are high, that of geosphere is fit, and that of Mo-93 and Ni-59 is good, and that of I-129 is low in biosphere. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the parameters related to concrete materials (such as effective diffusion coefficient of concrete, distribution coefficient of nuclide in concrete, thickness of concrete barrier), leaching rate of waste, initial activity and distribution coefficient of nuclide in geosphere are the main influencing parameters of model release rate peak value, which can be treated as the key parameters for subsequent engineering design and field investigation.

Key words: disposal of radioactive waste, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, cave disposal, compartment model

中图分类号:

TL942+.1

刘兴伟, 王旭宏, 吕涛, 李星宇, 李昶, 康宝伟, 王馨, 夏加国. 不确定性分析技术在某环保配套工程安全评价中的应用研究[J]. 辐射防护, 2023, 43(4): 325-335.

LIU Xingwei, WANG Xuhong, LV Tao, LI Xingyu, LI Chang, KANG Baowei, WANG Xin, XIA Jiaguo. Study on the application of uncertainty analysis technology in safety assessment of an environmental protection supporting project[J]. RADIATION PROTECTION, 2023, 43(4): 325-335.

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