不确定性分析技术在某环保配套工程安全评价中的应用研究

Abstract

Abstract: In order to solve the uncertainty problem (caused by cognitive level and long time scale) of safety assessment results for radioactive waste disposal, this study, based on an environmental protection supporting project, first carried out deterministic model safety assessment, and then generated 1 000 samples based on probability theory method and Latin hypercube sampling technology to carry out uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the calculation results of near-field release rate of deterministic model are high, that of geosphere is fit, and that of Mo-93 and Ni-59 is good, and that of I-129 is low in biosphere. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the parameters related to concrete materials (such as effective diffusion coefficient of concrete, distribution coefficient of nuclide in concrete, thickness of concrete barrier), leaching rate of waste, initial activity and distribution coefficient of nuclide in geosphere are the main influencing parameters of model release rate peak value, which can be treated as the key parameters for subsequent engineering design and field investigation.

Key words: disposal of radioactive waste, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, cave disposal, compartment model

CLC Number:

TL942+.1

LIU Xingwei, WANG Xuhong, LV Tao, LI Xingyu, LI Chang, KANG Baowei, WANG Xin, XIA Jiaguo. Study on the application of uncertainty analysis technology in safety assessment of an environmental protection supporting project[J].RADIATION PROTECTION, 2023, 43(4): 325-335.

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Study on the application of uncertainty analysis technology in safety assessment of an environmental protection supporting project

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