中国科技核心期刊

中文核心期刊

CSCD来源期刊

空间控制技术与应用 ›› 2012, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 41-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-1579.2012.06.009

• 技术交流 • 上一篇    下一篇

一种计算碰撞概率的分析解

  

  • 出版日期:2012-12-24 发布日期:2013-02-26

Analytical Solution for Collision Probability Calculation

  • Online:2012-12-24 Published:2013-02-26

摘要: 碰撞概率的大小表征航天器相遇过程的危险程度,碰撞概率是航天器规避机动策略制定的参考依据.如果两个飞行器的相对速度很大且相遇过程很短,相对运动可近似为线性运动,这样就可以将三维概率求解问题转化为二维概率问题.这类的碰撞概率求解通常应用数值计算方法.基于概率积分推导一种碰撞概率计算的分析解,能有效降低计算量并不损失太多精度.最终给出模拟算例验证分析解的准确性.

关键词: 碰撞概率, 航天器, 概率积分

Abstract: Collision probability represents the risk of collision between two spacecrafts during the encountering phase. Collision probability calculation is the basis of designing the collision avoidance maneuver strategy. If the relative velocity between two spacecrafts is large and the encountering time is short, the relative motion is approximately linear. Under this assumption, the problem of solving the threedimensional probability density is reduced to a twodimensional problem. Numerical integral methods are usually used to calculate the collision probability. An analytical solution based on probability integral is derived, which can reduce the amount of computation while the decreased accuracy is not so much. A case study is presented to validate the given method.

Key words: collision probability, spacecraft, probability integral

中图分类号: 

  •